[3] Thisperiodofstabilityendeddramaticallyin2008 — thoughwhethertheendwastemporaryorpermanentisnotyetknown.Housepriceshadbeenrisingrapidlysincethelate1990s.By2003, —andperhapsfueledby — thegrowthofnewtypesofmortgages, manyofthemissuedonthebasisoflittleornodocumentationonthepartoftheborrower, andbyaproliferationofnewwaysofrepackagingandinsuringthemortgages, oftenleavingitunclearwhowasbearingtheriskofdefault.
[4] Housepricesstartedfallingin2007, -relatedassetsreducedthenetworthofmanyfinancialinstitutionsandincreaseduncertaintyaboutthatnetworth, , spreadsbetweeninterestratesonovernightloansbetweenbanksandinterestratesongovernmentdebtrosesharply, , asofAugust2008, acommonviewwasthattheeconomywasprobablyinarecessionbutthatanyrecessionwaslikelytobeevenmilderthantheprevioustwo.
[5] InSeptember2008, however, LehmanBrothers5, amajorinvestmentbank, , financialmarketssuffereddramaticturmoil, andtherecessionchangedfrommildtosevere.Equitypricesfellbymorethan25percentinjust4weeks; spreadsbetweeninterestratesonconventionalbutslightlyriskyloansandthoseonthesafestandmostliquidassetsskyrocketed; -quarterdeclinesince1957-1958; andfromSeptember2008toMay2009, , .
[6] , theprevailingviewisthatunemploymentwillremainabovethenaturalrateandoutputwillremainbelowitsnormallevelforyears, , ifanything, policymakersshoulddotospeedtherecoveryandreducethelong-termdamage.
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