[7] Theeventsofthepastfewyearswereaprofoundshocknotjusttothemacroeconomy, -runaggregatefluctuations, whichwethoughtwehadlargelytamed, , , andtightmonetarypolicyplayedlittleornorole.
[8] , macroeconomicstodayisinapositionsimilartowhereitstoodintheearly1970s, , asnow, — andtheonethatinfactoccurred — wasthatthedevelopmentswouldleadtolargeandunexpectedchangesinthefield.
[9] Obviously, .
[10] , whichissuesdemanddepositsandholdsavarietyoflong-termassets, suchas30-yearmortgages.Whyfinancialinstitutionsengageinsuchmaturitytransformation7, andwhytheirshorttermcontractstakesuchsimpleforms (suchasnon-contingentdebtpayableondemand), , thereisastrongforceactingtocreatemultipleequilibriums: -termdebtcontracts.
[11] , housepricesbeforethecrisisappeartohavebeenabovethelevelswarrantedbylikelypayoffsindifferentstatesoftheworld; andthesameistrueofthepricesofvariousassetswhosepayoffsweretiedtothehousingmarket, , onedifficultywasthatcredit-ratingagenciesfocusedonevaluatingtheprobabilityofdefault, , , — thatis, , tradesthatmovepricesbacktowardfundamentalsinvolverisks, , theinvestormightbeforcedtoliquidatehisorherposition, ’sdemandfortheunderpricedasset, , , specializedinvestorsmayfindthattheamountoffundingtheycanobtainfromnon-expertsislowerwhenmispricingisgreater.
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